As we inch toward the September peak of storm season, activity in the tropics might be heating up again with a tropical disturbance that has the Caribbean and Florida potentially in its path.
The National Weather Service of Miami estimated there's a 50 percent chance that the wave could strengthen into a tropical cyclone. The charted storm path has local residents' eyes glued to forecasts, as the cone has the Florida peninsula at its center.
Weather researcher and climatologist Brian McNoldy tells New Times the disturbance is still disorganized and has not yet evolved into a tropical depression (a system with wind speeds of 38 mph or less).
"There is a disorganized wave moving west-northwest through the deep tropics that has a shot at becoming a tropical depression later this week. If that happens, the latest model guidance indicates a slight possibility of something weak reaching or affecting somewhere in Florida this weekend," McNoldy says.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) says the disturbance has no chance of development in the next 48 hours but that conditions could be favorable for strengthening over the next week.Jul 29 @ 1045 AM - There's a medium (50%) chance of tropical development later in the week near the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas. It's still too early to decipher possible impacts to SoFla this weekend. Continue to monitor the latest through the week. #FLwx pic.twitter.com/hAUTSV9MSM
— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) July 29, 2024
"Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development... and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas," NOAA said in a Monday morning forecast.
While it's too early to pinpoint a potential impact on South Florida, weather forecasters in Miami are watching the tropical disturbance closely.
"It's certainly worth keeping an eye on, but as of now, there's no reason for concern from this disturbance. Some reliable models don't ever develop it," McNoldy says.
The rest of the tropics look quiet, for now.
Forecasters have predicted a highly active hurricane season owing to the La Niña climate pattern and warm ocean temperatures. NOAA said in May that it was expecting 17 to 25 total named storms, four to seven of which the agency forecast to become Category 3 or stronger hurricanes.
