Sure, it's been raining — albeit in the typical Miami "off-and-on" style — but the dozens of hurricanes we were warned to brace for? Like Destiny's Child looking for their soldiers, when it comes to hurricanes, we are over here wondering "Where dey at?"
Because they're nowhere to be found. Not that anyone's complaining or anything, but as we all muddle through what's supposed to be the peak of hurricane season, we've mostly been grabbing umbrellas (if that) instead of boarding up windows (🙏).
Experts predicted this year would be an active one, fueled by record-breaking ocean temperatures and a developing La Niña. Yet, despite all the conditions lining up for what should have been a chaotic few months, Miami has (so far) been spared (knock on wood), aside from an inconvenient downpour here and there. So, while we were all expecting to be like Saul (played by James Franco) mimicking Alaine Reed Hall (played by Rose Lee Holloway) from 227 in Pineapple Express, saying, "I thought the hurricane season was over," right now we're more like, "Bruh, has it started yet?" Meteorologist Sam Lillo recently weighed in on the underperforming 2024 hurricane season, calling it a "bust of historic proportions." In a tweet, Lillo noted that model forecasts, which had initially predicted an aggressive start to September, have since backed off, leaving experts to debate the factors behind the unusually quiet season. "Lots of good half-time analysis floating around Twitter on possible culprits," he added.
It turns out that we might be able to blame it on a few odd factors. The African Monsoon is behaving unusually, dropping heavy rain over the Sahara Desert instead of sending thunderstorms scudding over the ocean. Meanwhile, dry air is sucking the life out of potential storms, keeping them from gathering strength. As if to make it more confusing, our trusty weather models keep predicting storms that fizzle out before they form.With model guidance backing off of previously aggressive tropical forecasts for the first half of September, the 2024 hurricane season is just about a lock for a bust of historic proportions.
— Sam Lillo (@splillo) September 1, 2024
Lots of good half-time analysis floating around Twitter on possible culprits.
But don't be fooled by the lack of tropical drama. Miamians can't relax just yet. ("You can plan a pretty picnic, but you can't predict the weather," as OutKast so wisely put it.) While the models might be off, it only takes one hurricane to change the game. Remember Hurricane Andrew? It's a stark reminder that even a quiet season can take a sudden, devastating turn.
Atmospheric scientists like Tomer Burg admit the season hasn't lived up to its initial chaotic forecast.
But Burg and others are quick to warn that the lull doesn't mean we're out of the woods. Conditions can shift in an instant, and the Gulf of Mexico is still sitting there, just waiting for the right moment to stir things up.Between the latest statistics & excellent analysis of large scale factors from other tropical meteorologists, it should be clearly evident that top-tier hyperactive forecasts are not going to verify. The remaining question is just how less active vs. forecast will 2024 end up.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) September 1, 2024
So, while we're grateful for the relatively quiet stretch thus far, Miamians know better than to get complacent. Keep an eye on the forecast and stay ready. Because in South Florida, the storm you didn't expect might be the one that defines the season.As far as land impacts go, the ongoing hurricane season forecast bust in the Atlantic does **NOT** mean it’s safe to let your guard down. In far too many years we’ve seen that all it takes is one storm to cause major impacts. But, hopefully few, if any, such storms happen.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) September 1, 2024
