While Miami was spared once more, South Floridians remain on alert for what's next in the Atlantic, most immediately tropical depression 7, which could strengthen into Tropical Storm Gordon.
Despite the new storm's development, current projections from the National Hurricane Center offer some good news. The forecast shows the system remaining far offshore, with a potential turn away from land early next week. As the remnants of Francine continue to drift eastward, Miami might see some effects from that storm in the form of rain, though the forecast looks calm for now.
Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami who specializes in hurricanes and climatology, offered some insights to New Times as we navigate the peak of the 2024 hurricane season.
Francine's Remnants: A Chance of Rain, But No Major Concerns
While Francine has lost its punch, McNoldy explains that its remnants could still influence Miami's weather, albeit indirectly."Well, it's not a tropical cyclone anymore. It's just kind of the remnants of it centered over northern Arkansas and the south part of Missouri, but there's really not too much left," he explains. "But it will be interacting with a trough in the eastern U.S. tomorrow. So we kind of have a chance of increased rain tomorrow indirectly related to what was once Francine —very indirectly, we might get some increased rain chance from ex-Francine."
A trough, McNoldy clarifies, is "kind of a large-scale part of a wave in the atmosphere"; such systems often lead to increased clouds and chances of rain. While Miami might see some showers, McNoldy emphasizes that any impact from Francine's remnants will be minimal — "an extra little nudge" toward precipitation in the forecast.
The National Hurricane Center's seven-day outlook shows the remnants of Hurricane Francine moving inland, while potential Tropical Storm Gordon remains far out in the eastern Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Gordon Unlikely to Affect South Florida
As for the next potential storm, McNoldy assures Miamians that there's no need to worry about Tropical Storm Gordon reaching Florida."It won't at all. It is in the middle of the far eastern Atlantic and won't even get near the Lesser Antilles," he assures. The storm is forecast to move westward over the next few days before potentially curving away from land entirely. While meteorologists will continue to monitor its development, current models suggest it does not pose any threat to the U.S. mainland, let alone Miami.
Mild Hurricane Season in Miami: A Matter of Luck?
Miami has been spared from significant hurricane activity this season. McNoldy attributes this to a combination of luck and timing."Specifically, I think it generally comes down to luck," the meteorologist elaborates. "As of now, we have seven named storms, and three of those have made landfall as hurricanes on the northern Gulf Coast. So for the northern Gulf Coast it has certainly not been a quiet season. But for us in South Florida, yes. And I would say: So far, so good."
That doesn't mean Miami is in the clear, McNoldy cautions.
"There's still half of the hurricane season left, and historically the most common month for hurricane encounters in South Florida is October," he notes. "So our most active month is still ahead of us."
