FAU Poll: Kamala Harris Cutting Into Trump's Lead in Florida

A new poll released by the Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) in partnership with Mainstreet USA found Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris is dwindling in Florida. 

The survey, conducted August 10-11 among a sample of 1,055 registered Florida voters 18 years or older, found that Trump leads Harris by only three percentage points among likely voters, with 50 percent saying they'd support Trump and 47 percent in favor of Harris.

The three-point gap matches the poll's estimated margin of error of plus or minus three points. 

"The narrowing gap between Trump and Harris is consistent with the tightening we have seen in other states," Kevin Wagner, professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab, said in a press release. "If this trend holds, we may see a competitive race in Florida."

An April FAU/PollCom poll had then-presumptive Democratic nominee President Joe Biden trailing Trump by eight percentage points among likely voters.

The new result suggests Harris resonates with Democratic-leaning voters, particularly women and younger voters.

"Female voters in Florida favor Harris by 53 percent while Trump garners 43 percent," the press release notes. "Among male voters, Trump leads with 56 percent compared to Harris at 39 percent. Harris receives strong support from Black voters at 77 percent, while Trump captures 17 percent."

Polling also suggests Florida voters approve of Harris' running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

"So far, Tim Walz has been a help to Harris, but it’s early and many voters are still learning about the Minnesota governor," Wagner said.

The survey also provides some insight into Floridians' support of the abortion and marijuana-legalization amendments to the state constitution that will be on the November ballot.

Pollsters found that 56 percent of voters said they support Amendment 4, "an amendment ensuring no law shall prohibit abortion before viability." That broke down as 59 percent of women and 54 percent of men.  support the abortion amendment, according to the poll.

As far as the marijuana amendment (Amendment 3), 56 percent of all voters said they support the initiative. Young voters, aged 18 to 49 were the biggest cohort to back the amendment, totaling 69 percent.

In order to pass, a constitutional amendment must garner at least 60 percent approval from voters at the ballot box.

"These results reflect a growing awareness of the constitutional amendments. In April, FAU polled on both initiatives and at that time these measures had 49 percent approval, which shows a gain of 7 percent over the last four months," Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU, said in the release.

The FAU poll showed incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott leading Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by four percentage points among likely voters.

"While Scott leads, there is increasing evidence that this race could be competitive in November," Wagner said.