At the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts could be among the most active ever, analytics company CoreLogic released data showing potential exposure to property damage from hurricane-driven storm surge around the United States. The 2024 Hurricane Risk Landscape report estimates that more than 500,000 homes across the Miami metro area are at risk of storm surge this hurricane season.
And the potential cost to rebuild them all? $124 billion.
"Storm surge poses a significant threat to coastal cities like Miami and New York, where densely populated areas are situated near the coastline," the report reads.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1 and runs through late November.Houses are wiped off their foundations and seen floating down streets in Fort Myers Beach as storm surge from Hurricane #Ian moves in.
— Zach Covey (@ZachCoveyTV) September 28, 2022
📹 Cathy Haggins pic.twitter.com/Zw1IOXbgQY
NOAA has forecast anywhere from 17 to 25 named storms (tropical systems with wind speeds of 39 mph or higher) — eight to 13 of which are predicted to become hurricanes, including four to seven major hurricanes. This Atlantic hurricane season is also expected to have an above-normal West African monsoon, which could develop easterly winds that "seed some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic storms."
According to the CoreLogic report, more than 2 million homes in the Miami metro area are at "moderate or greater risk" of exposure to hurricane winds in 2024.
The report notes that Southeastern Florida (that's us!) is the region with the highest probability of a hurricane making landfall in the United States, followed by Harris County in Texas, and Manhattan County in New York.
"Miami-Dade and Manhattan counties are heavily exposed to the coast and are susceptible to any storms, especially from a coastal flooding standpoint," the report notes. "There are a large number of buildings at risk of hurricane damage in all three counties."
Citing NOAA's historical hurricane tracking, CoreLogic says that there have been "48 hurricanes (Category 1 or greater) within 60 nautical miles of the Miami-Dade County boundary since the beginning of the twentieth century."
As defined by NOAA, a storm surge is "the abnormal rise in seawater level during a storm" — in other words, when water from the ocean is pushed ashore by the force of tropical storms or hurricanes. Often the deadliest element of a hurricane, surge waters from strong storms can rise 15 feet or more above the ordinary sea level, enveloping streets and buildings in coastal areas.
The report found that roughly 7.7 million homes in hurricane-exposed regions in the U.S. are susceptible to storm surge flooding.
The devastating impact of a large storm surge was seen during Hurricane Ian, which left cities in Lee and Collier counties in ruins in September 2022. More than 40 people drowned in the coastal floodwaters.
Miami-Dade County has identified several surge-planning zones with the potential to see a minimum storm surge of one and a half feet during a hurricane. You can find a map of planning zones here.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns that tropical storms and hurricanes can produce a surge regardless of how they rank in terms of wind speed.
"Surge can occur before, during, or after the center of a storm passes through an area. Storm surge can sometimes cut off evacuation routes, so do not delay leaving if an evacuation is ordered for your area," NHC says.
